Mission for Moderator.

Quote:EvenBobYou are always in the short term, you will

never play enough to be in the long term.

The game is in the long term every

minute, you never are,

this post, while it may be technically accurate, depending on how one defines long term, is highly misleading

the longer a player plays, the closer his results are likely to be to what his long run expectation indicates

a mathematician (which I'm not) can make quick work of this

he will be able to calculate for example, that an AP playing with a 1.25% advantage:

will be ahead 67% of the time if he plays 1,000 hands

85% of the time if he plays 10,000 hands

and 95% of the time he plays 100,000 hands

these %s are not meant to be accurate -

they are just rough estimates serving as examples of exactly what a mathematician would be able to calculate

he can also make more in depth calculations - such as how often he will exceed his expectation by how much depending on how many hands he has played

anybody considering the worth of an EB post re gambling should consider this:

he has claimed he can easily beat double zero roulette

he has stated that it doesn't matter if the wheel has one or 2 zeroes

he refuses to state his methods for doing this

he has stated that the math doesn't matter

he has stated that he considered buying a Minivan for $2,500 with 200,000 miles

even though if he can easily beat roulette as he says, all he would have to do is up his bets for a day or a few days and he would easily have enough to buy a new Minivan

.

Quote:DRichI would disagree with this. Many people play enough that they should approach long term as opposed to short term.

Nope. Here is the long term. Every hand of BJ that's

ever been played in the world and is being played

at the moment. There is no way one person can

even put a dent in being in the long term. Why do

you think it took Thorpe so long, with the help of

computers, to prove card counting works. A computer

is the only thing that can simulate the long term. We

humans are permanently stuck in the short term.

Quote:lilredrooster

he has claimed he can easily beat double zero roulette

It only works because I realize I am totally

stuck in the short term. And always will

be. I cannot beat the long term, but I don't need

to. In the long term everything smoothly evens

out. In the short term anything can and will

happen and that can be exploited..

By that thinking, he didn't prove jack, because you seem to interpret 'the long term' as eternity.Quote:EvenBobWhy do

you think it took Thorpe so long, with the help of

computers, to prove card counting works. A computer

is the only thing that can simulate the long term. We

humans are permanently stuck in the short term.

One can prove that card counting works without simulating or playing one single hand. It's actually fairly simple arithmetic.

With just a little bit of maths, and zero simulation, one can say with x% probability that a card counter will be within a range of outcomes where the outcome is 'in profit'

and as number of hands is increased WITHOUT PLAYING ANY, one could calculate and chart how x% varies win n, where count of hands is n.

All without computer simulation or hours of play.

Oh.... And EvenBob cannot beat Roulette $:o)

What percent is your supposed average advantage?Quote:EvenBob.

In that case, you should have no problem beating any game no matter how bad the payback is.Quote:EvenBobIt only works because I realize I am totally

stuck in the short term. And always will

be. I cannot beat the long term, but I don't need

to. In the long term everything smoothly evens

out. In the short term anything can and will

happen and that can be exploited..

At -5% that so-called long run shows up fairly quickly.Quote:OnceDearBy that thinking, he didn't prove jack, because you seem to interpret 'the long term' as eternity.

One can prove that card counting works without simulating or playing one single hand. It's actually fairly simple arithmetic.

With just a little bit of maths, and zero simulation, one can say with x% probability that a card counter will be within a range of outcomes where the outcome is 'in profit'

and as number of hands is increased WITHOUT PLAYING ANY, one could calculate and chart how x% varies win n, where count of hands is n.

All without computer simulation or hours of play.

Oh.... And EvenBob cannot beat Roulette $:o)

So True. I suppose EvenBob whups that long term by never playing at all.Quote:AxelWolfAt -5% that so-called long run shows up fairly quickly.